There is a moment in every market cycle where logic quietly leaves the room, shuts the door behind it, and leaves a note that says, “I’ll be back when this blows up.” That moment is when investors stop asking whether a stock is expensive and start asking whether they’ll feel worse missing it. This is the birth of what we might call the P/E Ratio of Regret —the psychological multiple that replaces valuation when prices feel justified not by fundamentals, but by fear of being left behind. You know the moment. The stock has already doubled. Analysts are raising price targets with straight faces. Financial media explains that this time is different using the same cadence they used last time, which was also different, until it wasn’t. Your portfolio looks underdressed compared to your neighbor’s returns. And suddenly, a stock trading at 45x earnings doesn’t look expensive anymore—it looks necessary . This is not because valuation stopped mattering. It’s because regret became the domin...
There’s a certain time of year when everything feels a little… softer. The light fades earlier. Motivation clocks out without notice. Your ambition goes into hibernation. And the stock market, ever the empathetic companion, decides to follow suit. Welcome to the overlap between cyclical investing and seasonal depression —a place where economic downturns and emotional downturns shake hands and say, “Yeah, this checks out.” This is not a self-help article. This is not financial therapy. This is a guide to understanding why some stocks fall apart at the exact moment you feel like canceling plans, wearing the same hoodie three days in a row, and Googling “Is it normal to hate everything in February?” Spoiler: it’s not a coincidence. The Market Has Moods. So Do You. We like to pretend markets are rational. Efficient. Cold. Mathematical. They are not. Markets are crowds. Crowds are emotional. And emotions—much like winter—come in cycles. Cyclical stocks rise and fall based on pre...