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TSM Risk Analysis: Geopolitics, AI Demand, and Supply Chain Pressure

When I look at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, better known to American investors by the ticker TSM, I see one of the most impressive businesses in the world sitting in one of the most complicated positions imaginable. TSMC manufactures the advanced chips powering artificial intelligence accelerators, smartphones, data centers, high-performance computers, vehicles, and more devices than most of us realize. It operates the factories behind many of the technology companies that receive far more public attention. Those companies design the glamorous products. TSMC performs the extraordinarily difficult work of turning the designs into functioning silicon at scale. This arrangement has made TSMC indispensable. It has also made the company almost impossible to analyze with ordinary investing language. I cannot evaluate TSM simply by looking at revenue growth, margins, and earnings estimates. Those numbers matter, but they do not tell the whole story. I also have to consider mili...
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Alphabet Valuation: Is the Market Underestimating Its Cash Machine?

All financial figures and market prices in this article are based on information available as of August 26, 2026. This article reflects my personal analysis and is not individualized financial advice. When I look at Alphabet, I see one of the strangest valuation debates in the market. On one side, I see a company with dominant global platforms, extraordinary margins, rapidly growing cloud operations, a fortress-like balance sheet, and an advertising engine capable of producing tens of billions of dollars in cash every quarter. On the other side, I see an increasingly capital-intensive artificial intelligence race that is forcing Alphabet to spend money at a pace that would have sounded almost absurd a few years ago. Both versions of the company are real. That is what makes Alphabet difficult to value. It is no longer enough for me to say that Google Search is a great business and slap a historical price-to-earnings multiple on the stock. I have to determine how much of Alphabet’s curre...

Nvidia Risk Analysis: What Could Break the AI Trade?

I understand why investors look at Nvidia and see something close to inevitability. The company has become the tollbooth, hardware store, power plant, and unofficial patron saint of the artificial-intelligence boom. Every major technology company seems to be building data centers with the urgency of someone who has just learned the future will be assigned on a first-come, first-served basis. Nvidia supplies the chips, systems, networking, and software ecosystem that make much of this construction possible. Revenue rises. Expectations rise faster. Jensen Huang puts on the leather jacket, says “accelerated computing,” and another small country’s gross domestic product appears in the company’s market value. I am impressed. I am also nervous. Those feelings are not contradictory. The stronger the company becomes, the more investors are tempted to treat the stock as a law of nature. But a great company and a safe investment are not the same thing. A stock can fall without the business faili...

SCHD Valuation: Are Dividend Stocks Ready for a Comeback?

For several years, dividend investors have been forced to sit quietly in the corner while growth stocks turned the market into their private awards ceremony. Artificial intelligence dominated the conversation. Mega-cap technology companies attracted enormous amounts of capital. Investors happily paid elevated valuations for businesses promising faster growth, wider margins, and a future in which apparently every refrigerator, automobile, toothbrush, and spreadsheet would require an advanced semiconductor. Meanwhile, the companies producing medicine, beverages, industrial equipment, energy, insurance, and dependable cash distributions were treated like furniture. Useful, certainly, but not something anyone felt compelled to discuss at dinner. I understand why. A rising stock is more exciting than a quarterly dividend. Nobody gathers the family around the computer to watch Coca-Cola deposit another distribution. A dividend does not flash across the screen, announce a revolutionary produc...