Every time Microsoft goes on another tear, I see the exact same debate play out like clockwork. One crowd is convinced they've missed the opportunity forever. They stare at the chart like someone who arrived at the airport just in time to watch their plane disappear into the clouds. "Well, that's it," they sigh. "I guess I'll wait for the next bear market." The other crowd suddenly discovers a level of confidence normally reserved for lottery winners and declares Microsoft will apparently compound at 25% annually until the sun burns out. Neither side seems particularly interested in living in reality. I've learned that one of the most expensive habits investors develop is believing that stocks have feelings. If a company goes up a lot, people assume it's somehow "too high." If it falls 40%, they automatically assume it's "cheap." The market, meanwhile, couldn't care less about your emotional attachment to round numbers...
If there's one thing the stock market has taught me over the years, it's that yesterday's winners don't automatically become tomorrow's champions. Technology changes too quickly. Consumer preferences evolve overnight. Companies that dominate one decade often spend the next explaining to investors why things didn't go according to plan. That's why I always approach high-flying technology stocks with equal parts optimism and skepticism. Broadcom is one of those companies. It isn't flashy. Its CEO isn't constantly making headlines with outrageous predictions. It doesn't rely on trendy consumer gadgets to drive revenue. Instead, Broadcom quietly powers much of the digital infrastructure that most people never think about. Ironically, that's exactly what makes me interested. While everyone argues over which artificial intelligence chatbot is winning the popularity contest, Broadcom is busy selling the picks and shovels. History has shown that the ...