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Featured post

Bull vs. Bear Case: Has Microsoft Become Too Expensive?

Market data and company results used in this article are current through August 6, 2026. I have a recurring problem with Microsoft stock: every time I decide it looks expensive, the company produces another quarter that makes “expensive” sound less like analysis and more like a personal failure of imagination. This is the emotional trap of owning—or considering owning—a truly exceptional business. A mediocre company can be dismissed with a spreadsheet and a functioning sense of self-preservation. Microsoft forces me to argue with myself. The valuation looks demanding, the artificial-intelligence spending looks enormous, and the expectations look high enough to require supplemental oxygen. Then Microsoft reports 18% revenue growth on a base of more than $280 billion, Azure grows 43%, operating income rises 18%, and I am left staring at the numbers like a man who arrived at a duel carrying a strongly worded memo. As of August 6, Microsoft shares trade around $487. The market values the c...
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Broadcom Earnings Preview: AI Revenue, VMware, and Margin Strength

What I’m watching when Broadcom reports fiscal third-quarter results on September 2, 2026 Broadcom is approaching the kind of earnings report that makes reasonable investors behave like unpaid detectives. The company will report fiscal third-quarter 2026 results after the market closes on September 2. Between now and then, I expect analysts to inspect cloud capital-expenditure plans, custom accelerator shipments, networking demand, VMware contract trends, margin assumptions, and possibly the tone of Hock Tan’s breathing. This is what happens when a company becomes one of the market’s most important artificial-intelligence suppliers: excellent execution stops being impressive and becomes the minimum cover charge. I understand the excitement. Broadcom’s latest results were extraordinary. Fiscal second-quarter revenue reached $22.2 billion, up 48% from a year earlier. AI semiconductor revenue hit $10.8 billion, an increase of 143%. Adjusted EBITDA was $15.2 billion, or 69% of revenue. Fre...

Arista Earnings Preview: Cloud Spending, Margins, and the Data Center Demand Test

I have learned that earnings season is where perfectly rational adults stare at a company growing revenue by more than 30% and ask why management has not also discovered cold fusion. That is the atmosphere surrounding Arista Networks as it prepares to report second-quarter 2026 results after the market closes on August 4. The company enters this report with enormous momentum, outstanding profitability, powerful exposure to artificial intelligence infrastructure, and a stock price that already assumes Arista will continue executing like a company whose executives have somehow negotiated an exemption from ordinary business problems. Arista is expected to report approximately $2.83 billion in second-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings of roughly $0.89 per share, although estimates vary slightly by source. Those numbers would represent another quarter of substantial growth. Under normal circumstances, that would be enough to make investors happy. These are not normal circumstances. Arist...

TSM Earnings Preview: Chip Demand, Margins, and Capacity Expansion

There are ordinary earnings reports, and then there are Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company earnings reports—the quarterly moment when much of the technology industry gathers around one company’s numbers and attempts to determine whether the artificial-intelligence boom is still a historic infrastructure cycle or merely the most expensive group project in corporate history. TSMC trades in the United States under the ticker TSM, but I do not think of it as just another semiconductor stock. I see it as the industrial foundation beneath an astonishing amount of modern computing. Other companies design the glamorous chips, announce them beneath theatrical lighting, give them aggressive names, and explain how they will transform civilization. TSMC performs the slightly less cinematic task of actually manufacturing many of them. Without that manufacturing capacity, the grand AI revolution becomes an attractive slide presentation waiting for hardware. That is what makes the next earnin...