Wall Street loves artificial intelligence, enormous growth projections, and companies promising spectacular profits several years into the future. What it doesn't particularly love is discovering that investors might already have paid for all three. Stock: Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ: SMTC) Investment focus: AI data-center revenue, fiscal 2030 targets, operating margins, cash flow, and valuation Analysis date: October 26, 2026 Wall Street Has Discovered That AI Stocks Can Apparently Go Down I've been watching the artificial intelligence investment craze unfold with the kind of fascination normally reserved for witnessing someone attempt to assemble an expensive piece of furniture without reading the instructions. Everyone seems extraordinarily confident, nobody wants to admit the process might be more complicated than advertised, and there's an excellent chance someone will eventually discover that the entire structure depends on a few very important screws. Enter Semtec...
When a refinery starts printing money faster than Wall Street can update its spreadsheets, I start wondering whether I'm looking at a bargain or an expensive lesson in cyclical investing. Wall Street Loves a Record Quarter. I Love Asking What Happens Next. There is something wonderfully predictable about Wall Street. A company reports spectacular earnings, financial commentators begin throwing around phrases like "earnings momentum" and "compelling valuation," and suddenly everyone acts as though the business has discovered a permanent method of printing money. Apparently, nobody told the economic cycle that it was supposed to retire. That brings me to Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO), one of America's largest independent petroleum refiners and the latest company to demonstrate just how profitable turning crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel can become when market conditions cooperate. On October 22, 2026, Valero reported third-quarter net income of approx...