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Markets Under Constraint: Investing in an Era of Policy Intervention

There was a time—gather round, children—when investors pretended markets were natural ecosystems. Supply met demand. Price discovered value. Central banks gently adjusted interest rates like thermostat managers with graduate degrees. That time is over. We now live in an era where policy doesn’t just influence markets—it inhabits them. It builds scaffolding, erects guardrails, occasionally swings a sledgehammer, and then sends a press release explaining why gravity is optional. Welcome to investing under constraint. This isn’t a doom-and-gloom piece. It’s not a lament for some mythical free-market Eden that never quite existed. It’s an acknowledgment that today’s investing landscape operates inside a policy framework that is tighter, more interventionist, and more politically charged than at any point in recent decades. And if you don’t understand that constraint? You’re not investing. You’re guessing. The Age of Intervention Is Not Temporary Let’s be clear: policy interventi...
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Inflation-Resilient Business Models (Or: How to Make Money While the Dollar Loses Its Mind)

Inflation is the financial equivalent of that one friend who eats off your plate and insists it’s “just a bite.” It doesn’t show up dramatically at first. It’s subtle. Prices nudge upward. Gas creeps. Groceries rise like bread dough with ambition. Then one day you’re staring at a receipt thinking, “When did eggs become a luxury good?” For consumers, inflation is irritating. For businesses, it’s existential. Margins shrink. Input costs rise. Labor demands increase. Customers become price-sensitive and moody. Forecasting turns into a guessing game. But here’s the twist: some business models don’t just survive inflation. They thrive in it. Let’s unpack what makes certain companies inflation-resilient—and why the structure of a business often matters more than the headline growth rate when prices start running hot. First, What Inflation Actually Does to a Business Inflation doesn’t just raise costs. It tests leverage—operational leverage, pricing leverage, and psychological levera...

Investing Without Forecasts: Portfolio Construction in Uncertain Environments

There’s a special kind of confidence reserved for people who believe they know what happens next. The market will rally. Rates will fall. AI will dominate. Energy will rebound. Small caps will finally have their moment. Forecasting is seductive. It feels intelligent. Strategic. Empowered. Like you’ve cracked the code. But here’s the uncomfortable truth: forecasts are usually just narratives wearing spreadsheets. And when uncertainty thickens — geopolitics, inflation swings, tech revolutions, policy shifts — forecasts don’t get better. They just get louder. So what if you stopped trying to predict? What if portfolio construction wasn’t about being right — but about being resilient? Welcome to investing without forecasts. The Forecasting Illusion Forecasting makes us feel in control. Humans are wired for pattern recognition. We connect dots, extrapolate trends, and assume continuity. But markets don’t operate on neat linear trajectories. They operate on probability, reflex...

The Economics of Boring Businesses

There’s a certain type of investor who lights up when someone says “artificial intelligence,” “biotech breakthrough,” or “disruptive platform.” The room fills with phrases like total addressable market, exponential growth, paradigm shift. There are charts. There is optimism. There are hoodies. And then there are boring businesses. The companies that make industrial fasteners. The ones that distribute cleaning supplies. The regional waste haulers. The manufacturers of gaskets, insulation, gravel, warehouse shelving, pest control services, pipe fittings, asphalt sealant, porta-potties, funeral services, auto parts, and unglamorous replacement components that quietly keep civilization from collapsing. No one makes a Netflix docuseries about a regional concrete company. No one is lining up outside a conference center to hear a keynote on corrugated packaging margins. And yet, boring businesses often make very serious money. Not flashy money. Not headline money. Durable money. Let’s ...