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Arista Networks After the AI Euphoria: What Growth Rate Would Justify the Premium?

I have reached the stage of the artificial-intelligence investment cycle where merely hearing the letters “AI” no longer causes me to throw money at a stock as though valuation were an outdated social convention. That does not mean I think the AI infrastructure boom is imaginary. The capital spending is real. The data centers are real. The demand for faster networking is real. The enormous checks being written by hyperscale cloud companies are painfully real—particularly for anyone who thought free cash flow would eventually be used for something quaint, such as dividends. Arista Networks is also a very real beneficiary. The company sells the high-speed networking equipment and software that allow massive computing systems to communicate. If graphics processors are the engines of an AI data center, networking is the road system connecting them. It does not matter how impressive the engines are if traffic jams leave them idling while an executive explains that the cluster is “experienci...
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Apple’s Services Business Is Quietly Rewriting the Economics of the Company

When most people picture Apple, they still picture hardware. They see the iPhone in someone’s hand, a MacBook glowing in a coffee shop, an Apple Watch counting steps its owner absolutely intends to take, or a pair of AirPods that will eventually disappear into the same mysterious dimension that collects unmatched socks. I understand why. Apple is one of the greatest hardware companies ever built. Its devices are visible, desirable, expensive, and constantly discussed. An iPhone launch can dominate the technology news cycle before the phone has even reached a store. Services are different. Nobody lines up outside an Apple Store at midnight to celebrate the arrival of another month of iCloud storage. There are no cinematic unboxing videos for an Apple Music renewal. I have yet to see anyone hold an AppleCare plan above their head while a crowd applauds. Yet the quieter side of Apple is becoming one of the most important parts of the entire company. Behind the annual product events and po...

Apple’s Installed Base May Be More Valuable Than Another Blockbuster iPhone

Every year, I watch the technology world gather around Apple’s latest iPhone as though civilization has been waiting twelve months to discover whether the camera bump has achieved a new spiritual dimension. The reviews arrive. The comparison charts multiply. People zoom into photographs of brick walls to evaluate detail no normal human being would inspect unless the brick were suspected of a crime. Analysts debate colors, battery life and whether a button has migrated three millimeters toward destiny. I understand the ritual. The iPhone remains Apple’s largest product category, its most recognizable device and the front door through which millions of customers enter the ecosystem. A successful launch still matters enormously. But when I think about what makes Apple valuable as a business, I increasingly believe the most important asset is not the next blockbuster iPhone. It is the installed base already sitting in pockets, resting on desks, tracking workouts, storing photographs and qu...

Amazon’s Retail Business Is Becoming Something Wall Street Never Expected: Highly Profitable

For years, I treated Amazon’s retail business as the world’s most elaborate customer-acquisition program for AWS. That was the accepted story: Amazon retail created scale, loyalty, Prime memberships, and an ocean of consumer data, while Amazon Web Services produced the margins Wall Street actually loved. Investors tolerated the thin economics of shipping millions of low-priced objects to millions of impatient people because AWS made the consolidated income statement look civilized. Then something inconvenient happened to that tidy narrative. Amazon’s retail operation started making serious money. Not “nice little improvement” money. Not “the holiday quarter went well” money. In the second quarter of 2026, Amazon’s North America segment generated $9.1 billion in operating income, up from $7.5 billion a year earlier. The International segment added another $1.7 billion, compared with $1.5 billion in the prior-year period. Together, those two commerce-heavy segments produced $10.8 billion...