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Earnings Stability in the Post-Disruption Era

For more than a decade, disruption was the dominant narrative. Startups were supposed to upend entire industries overnight. Legacy companies were labeled obsolete before their earnings even had a chance to wobble. Growth at any cost was celebrated. Profitability was optional. Stability was boring. Then reality intervened. Supply chain shocks. Inflation spikes. Interest rate resets. Geopolitical fragmentation. Technology cycles that move faster than regulation can keep up. Capital that became more selective. Consumers that became more cautious. The post-disruption era is not anti-innovation. It is anti-fragility. And in this environment, earnings stability has become one of the most misunderstood—and most valuable—traits an investor can evaluate. This isn’t about avoiding growth. It’s about understanding which growth is durable. It’s about identifying which business models can absorb volatility and continue generating predictable cash flows even when the macro narrative changes. ...
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Cash Flow Over Narrative: Investing After the Growth Premium Collapses

There was a time — not long ago — when profits were optional. If a company could tell a convincing story about total addressable markets, network effects, or “platform transformation,” investors lined up. Earnings? That was a problem for the future. Cash flow? A footnote. Free cash flow? That was for dinosaurs and dividend investors who still used spreadsheets instead of vibes. And then something shifted. The growth premium — that magical multiplier investors were willing to pay for companies promising explosive expansion — began to compress. Multiples shrank. Excuses evaporated. Suddenly, “adjusted EBITDA before stock-based compensation” didn’t feel like a warm blanket anymore. The market rediscovered something radical: Cash matters. If you’re investing in a post-growth-premium world, the rules have changed. Not entirely — but meaningfully. And if you’re still chasing narrative without examining cash flow, you may be playing yesterday’s game. Let’s talk about what investing loo...

Mature but Mispriced: Finding Value in Decelerating Enterprises

Why Slower Growth Doesn’t Mean Slower Returns There’s a certain romance in hypergrowth. Explosive revenue curves. Total addressable markets measured in trillions. CEO interviews that include phrases like “paradigm shift” and “category-defining platform.” Wall Street loves a rocket ship. But rockets burn fuel fast. And eventually, gravity wins. Meanwhile, over in the unglamorous corner of the market, something quieter happens every day: companies grow up. Revenue expansion slows. Margins stabilize. Capital allocation becomes more important than market domination. Narratives shift from “disruptor” to “incumbent.” The market often responds with boredom. And boredom, my friends, is where opportunity hides. This is the world of mature but mispriced companies — enterprises that have decelerated but not deteriorated. Businesses whose best hypergrowth days are behind them, yet whose cash flows, assets, and competitive positioning still justify far more respect than their multipl...

The Second Act: Investing in Businesses Beyond Revenue Acceleration

Wall Street has a type. It’s loud. It’s fast. It grows at 40% year-over-year and says words like total addressable market with a straight face. It raises capital like oxygen is optional. It promises that scale will fix everything. And then one day it doesn’t grow at 40%. That’s when the room gets quiet. Because most investors are trained to chase acceleration. Revenue acceleration. User growth acceleration. “Beat and raise” acceleration. The cult of the upward slope. But here’s the truth seasoned investors eventually learn: There is life beyond acceleration. In fact, some of the best long-term returns come from companies that have already had their dramatic growth spurt and are now entering what I call The Second Act . The second act is not flashy. It’s not viral. It doesn’t trend on social media. It doesn’t get breathless headlines about “disruption.” It gets better. It gets disciplined. The First Act Is Seduction The first act of a company’s life is intoxicating. Reven...