In the world of explosive AI growth stories, few companies combine the stealth, ambition, and scale of Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS). While Wall Street fawns over the Magnificent Seven and scrambles to understand how OpenAI, Anthropic, and others fit into the commercial AI puzzle, Nebius is quietly building a European AI infrastructure empire—and it’s about to cross the Atlantic. Despite a 20% decline in the stock since February 2025, the company is arguably one of the most compelling under-the-radar growth stories in AI today.
If you're a long-term investor searching for the next 10-bagger hiding in plain sight, this one deserves your attention.
The Dip Isn't the Story—The Growth Is
Let’s begin with the obvious: Nebius stock is down 20% from its recent high. For most momentum chasers, that's a red flag. But the market correction has been broad-based, with the S&P 500 itself in the throes of a selloff sparked by political uncertainty and concerns over rates. This isn't about Nebius faltering—it's about investors panicking.
What makes this dip even more of an opportunity is the company’s guidance. In Q4 2024, Nebius reported an annualized run rate (AAR) of $90 million. By itself, that’s unimpressive. But what matters isn’t where they were—it’s where they’re going. And management is projecting $750 million to $1 billion in AAR by the end of 2025.
That’s nearly a 10x growth story in a single year. That doesn’t just put Nebius on the map—it blows up the map entirely.
A Hidden Giant in AI Infrastructure
Nebius isn’t building an AI model like OpenAI or Google DeepMind. It’s not offering a flashy consumer chatbot. Instead, it’s doing the dirty, essential, scalable work: building the infrastructure backbone for AI compute.
Think of it as the "cloud for AI"—specialized infrastructure optimized to run the most demanding large language models (LLMs) and inference workloads. In this world, access to high-performance GPUs is king. And Nebius has an aggressive plan to dominate.
The GPU Roadmap
According to their latest earnings call, Nebius plans to deploy 38,000 Nvidia GPUs by March 2025, including the cutting-edge H200 models. In Q2 and Q3, they’ll start deploying Nvidia’s new Blackwell B200 and GB200 chips—arguably the most anticipated GPUs for generative AI workloads in history.
And they’re not stopping there. By the end of 2025, Nebius aims to operate 100 MW of power capacity for AI compute, with designs in place to scale beyond 300 MW as demand permits. If you know anything about AI infrastructure, you know that’s not just bold—it’s Bezos-level ambition.
Now here’s the kicker: they’re only using Nvidia GPUs. No AMD. No Intel. Why does that matter?
Because in AI, the best silicon wins. By focusing on Nvidia’s superior architecture, Nebius can command premium pricing and long-term enterprise contracts—exactly the kind of sticky revenue model investors should love.
US Expansion: The Catalyst for Institutional Recognition
One of the most exciting parts of the Nebius story isn’t about Europe—it’s about America.
The company is building its first US-based cluster in Kansas City, scheduled to go live by the end of Q1 2025. Another build-to-suit data center is in the works, though details remain sparse. And the CEO teased something even bigger: a proprietary data center design that could define their US footprint.
Why is this such a big deal?
Simple: US exposure = Wall Street exposure. Once Nebius plants its flag on American soil, institutional investors will have a much harder time ignoring it. And the early signs are already there.
Institutional Buying Is Picking Up Steam
In Q4 2024, the number of 13-F filers holding Nebius stock increased 110% quarter-over-quarter. Even more telling, the number of institutions placing Nebius in their top 10 holdings exploded from just 2 to 20.
That’s not random. That’s smart money moving early.
And yet, as of March 2025, only two Wall Street analysts cover the stock. That’s an anomaly in a sector as hyped as AI. But it’s also the opportunity. Because when the analysts finally wake up, the rerating could be explosive.
Valuation: The Math Behind the Madness
Let’s break down the numbers.
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Market Cap (estimated): ~$7 billion
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Expected FY 2025 Revenue: $700 million (midpoint guidance)
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P/S Ratio: ~10x
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AAR Growth YoY: ~10x
On the surface, a 10x forward P/S ratio seems aggressive. But context matters. The average P/S for the tech sector is around 3.5, but that includes slow-growing, mature players. For a company projecting 10x revenue growth in a single year, 10x P/S is arguably cheap.
In fact, if Nebius hits $1B in AAR and gets re-rated to a 15x sales multiple (like many cloud growth stocks in their early days), the upside is substantial.
Here’s a simple scenario:
And this doesn’t even include out-year growth in 2026 and beyond.
Execution Risk: The Elephant in the Server Room
Let’s be clear: this is not a risk-free investment. The road to 10x AAR is filled with potential landmines.
1. Execution Challenges
Scaling from 38,000 to potentially 100,000+ GPUs in under 12 months across two continents? That’s a logistical and operational nightmare. Delays in chip deliveries, construction hiccups, or regulatory bottlenecks could all throw a wrench in the timeline.
2. Sales Cycle Lag
The company has already experienced slower-than-expected customer onboarding. In Q4 2024, revenue came in light due to longer lead times. Management noted that new sales hires take 6 months to become fully productive. That likely means backloaded revenue growth—with much of the jump coming in H2 2025.
So yes, it’s possible the stock treads water until then, frustrating impatient investors.
3. Profitability Concerns
Nebius is still EBITDA-negative, and management expects this to continue through FY 2025. They might break even in one or two quarters, but don’t expect positive GAAP net income anytime soon.
Still, for early-stage infrastructure companies, this isn’t surprising. Think of AWS in 2008—it bled cash while building capacity, only to become the profit engine of Amazon a decade later.
The DeepSeek Effect: Demand Beyond Forecasts
A fascinating wildcard emerged in the Q&A portion of the last earnings call: DeepSeek.
For those unfamiliar, DeepSeek is a high-performance open-source language model gaining popularity among researchers and startups. According to Nebius’ CEO, the company saw a spike in demand for H200 GPUs at the end of January 2025, driven specifically by DeepSeek-related inference workloads.
This suggests a key trend: the more efficient AI models become, the more demand they generate, not less.
This is Jevons Paradox in action: as costs drop and efficiency rises, usage explodes. That’s great news for Nebius—because their infrastructure becomes the toll booth for the next wave of AI builders.
Why Wall Street Hasn’t Woken Up—Yet
So why is Nebius still a sleeper?
The answer is partly geographical, partly structural:
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European HQ: US investors often discount or ignore European tech stories unless they list on NASDAQ and have a strong US presence. Nebius is just starting to check those boxes.
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Low Analyst Coverage: Only two analysts cover the stock. This creates informational inefficiency—and opportunity.
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No Flashy Consumer Product: Unlike OpenAI or Anthropic, Nebius isn’t in the public eye. It’s an infrastructure company—a picks-and-shovels play in a gold rush. Less sexy, more scalable.
But all that’s changing. And fast.
Final Verdict: A 10x Story Hiding in Plain Sight
If you zoom out, the thesis is clear:
✅ Rapid Revenue Growth – Management projects nearly 10x AAR growth in 12 months.
✅ Early Institutional Buying – 13-F filings show a surge in interest.
✅ Limited Wall Street Coverage – Only two analysts cover the stock, meaning you’re early.
✅ Exclusive Nvidia Alignment – Premium pricing, multiyear contracts, and best-in-class hardware.
✅ U.S. Expansion Underway – Building infrastructure and visibility where it matters most.
✅ Valuation Still Reasonable – Despite 10x P/S, growth justifies the premium.
Yes, the risks are real. Execution is hard. Profitability is distant. And Wall Street is still half-asleep. But that’s what creates asymmetrical upside.
If Nebius delivers even half of what it’s projecting in 2025, the stock should rerate significantly higher. And if they hit the bull case?
This $7 billion company might not be under-the-radar for much longer.